This past weekend I went out canvassing for Obama, Mark Warner, and Jim Moran in Arlington through the Arlington Democrats’ coordinated campaign. It was the first time I had gone canvassing in Arlington, though I did a lot of canvassing in Fairfax in 2007 for state house candidates. I partnered with a guy who is interning in DC for the summer, who had never gone canvassing before, so that felt pretty good.

The neighborhood I canvassed was near the Arlington-Fairfax border, and it looked fairly working class, although real estate is so expensive in Arlington that I would guess these people had higher incomes than you would find in a similar neighborhood elsewhere. The people I talked to were mostly white, mostly under 60.

It was definitely the most pro-Obama white neighborhood I have ever been in, although since it was my first time canvassing for the general election it’s hard to compare. Kerry won Arlington County 2-1 in 2004, and from my completely unscientific sample Saturday, it seems like Obama is on track to replicate that. The key will be improving on Kerry’s performance in the further-out DC suburbs (Fairfax, Loudon, Prince William) and driving up turnout in Arlington and Alexandria. The good news is, given the proximity to DC, there are tons of politically active volunteers from Northern Virginia and DC to help with voter registration and GOTV.

I think my perception of the Virginia political landscape is slightly skewed because I live in Arlington, but Obama’s chances certainly look pretty good. I went back over the exit polls from the primary, and I still can’t figure out how Obama did so well among pretty much all demographic groups, given the demographic trends in primaries before and after. I think the strong volunteer organization played a big part in that, as well as Governor Kaine. Winning Virginia in November is still going to be tough, but I definitely think it’s doable.

For a Jewish girl who grew up in New Jersey, West Virginia was a bit of a culture shock. Martinsburg is only two hours from my apartment in Northern Virginia, but it felt like it may as well be a different country. I had been to West Virginia once before, canvassing for Kerry in 2004, but the area we visited then seemed a lot more suburban and familiar than where we were Sunday.

I want to make it clear at the outset that I in no way look down on the people of West Virginia. The culture shock I felt and my fear of canvassing there has to do with my own insecurity, feeling like an out of touch elitist who talks too fast and has lived on the East Coast my whole life.

Immediately upon arriving in Martinsburg Sunday, we saw a car with a Confederate flag decal. Not exactly the most encouraging sign when you’re about to knock on people’s doors and tell them to vote for a black man.

democrattotheend’s diary :: ::
I’d love to say my fears were unfounded, but those who say West Virginia is an uphill climb for Obama are not kidding. The first neighborhood we visited was sort of a cross between suburban and rural, with neighborhoods on one side of a main road and farmland on the other, though some of the farm land was being converted into housing developments. It was obvious that people had lived in that neighborhood for a long time, with one house bearing the name of the family and the year they moved in engraved on the front gates. I did not experience any overt racism, but there was definitely some hostility towards Obama. Most people just said “don’t even bother” when I tried to give them literature.

The second neighborhood was a little better. It seemed a little more modern, younger, and more open to Obama. I did find one couple that was definitely voting for him, as well as a few genuine undecideds. People in that neighborhood were pretty nice, with a few people inviting me in (probably because of the rain).

The weirdest encounter I had was with a black man from Haiti, who claimed to be very educated about the candidates but was convinced that Obama is friends with terrorists and that the fact that Hamas said positive things about him is a cause for concern. I tried to refute his claims but he did not want to hear it. He also complained that he “did not want to vote for Obama just because he’s black”, and I pointed out that I’m white and I support Obama because I agree with his vision for this country and I think he possesses all the qualities of a great leader. I don’t think I convinced him, but maybe he’ll think about what I said.

At one point, we took a break from canvassing and went out to lunch at a restaurant called Shoney’s. I think it’s a chain that’s popular in Appalachia…I had never been to one before, but I remember Al Gore mentioning it in a story he told when he spoke to a group of Congressional interns when I interned on the Hill in 2002. I have to say, it was pretty good. I would have preferred to eat at a locally owned place to really get a taste of West Virginia, but most of those places were closed on Sundays.

I asked our waitress if she was going to vote for Obama, and she said she hadn’t decided who she was voting for. She said she was a registered Republican so she did not think she could vote in the primary, but it seemed like she was at least open to the prospect of voting for Obama in November. I knew West Virginia’s primary was open to independents but I was not sure about Republicans, so I gave her some literature and told her to call the campaign to find out.

All in all, a bit of a discouraging day, but an interesting cultural experience for me. I did meet a lot of nice people, even if there wasn’t much enthusiasm about Obama. I’m glad I did it, just like I was glad I pushed myself to go to Raleigh two weeks ago when I was still depressed after Pennsylvania.

One thing I will say about West Virginia - it sure is beautiful, especially at this time of year. The mountains of farmland and stately houses created a picturesque spring scene, and it sure was an enjoyable drive (at least on the way there. On the way back it was pouring, though I am hoping I may have won a couple sympathy votes for Obama by canvassing in the pouring rain).

Oh, and lest you think I am a bad daughter for spending Mother’s Day canvassing, please know that my whole family supports Obama and my mother and grandmother said that they would prefer that I go to West Virginia than drive up to Philly to be with them. I called my grandmother on the way back to wish her a happy Mother’s Day, and she said she was proud that I was representing our whole family by being in West Virginia today, so that made me feel good.

First, I want to say that I don’t think she was trying to imply that black people are not hard-working. If anything, I think it was the opposite…I think she said “hard working people” and then clarified that she meant white people, so as not to imply that black people are not hard-working. If she had just said “hard working people” and not added “white people”, it might have sounded as if she was saying that the 90% of African Americans who have been voting for Obama don’t work hard. So I think people who have accused her of implying that black people are lazy are off-base.

That being said, I still find her comments offensive, because she is essentially asking the superdelegates to count the votes of certain demographic groups more heavily than others. It’s not just black people she is discounting here. I am a white woman with a college degree who voted for Obama in February, and she has essentially said that my vote matters less in gauging electability than the vote of a white person without a degree. She is discounting several groups of loyal Democratic voters, assuming that black voters can be taken for granted because they have voted 80-90% Democratic in the past. Meanwhile, according to her logic, instead of rewarding black voters for their loyalty, the superdelegates should reward the Reagan Democrats (a majority of whom voted for Bush in 2004) for being fickle, weighing their votes more heavily because they are considered swing voters.

Beyond that, what is most offensive to me about this and other comments she has made is that she is essentially hinting that she’s more electable because she’s white. No, she has not come right out and said that Obama is struggling with “hard working white people” because he’s black, but we all know that race is at least a factor here. While canvassing for Obama in Philly on election day, I met one working class white guy who told me point blank that he could not vote for a black man, and said he thought his mother and grandmother would disown him if he did. He said that I was just a naive young person, and he asked if my parents knew what I was doing, as if it was something scandalous. I told him that my mom was right around the corner, canvassing for Obama with a broken foot because she believed in him that much, and that my grandparents were voting for Obama as well. He was really surprised…he said that he could not imagine the people he knew voting for a black person. Given some of the other interactions I had in that neighborhood, I think he was probably right. It was a bit of a shock to me, having grown up in a relatively upper-middle class neighborhood and living next door to a black family and never witnessing such overt racism before. The bottom line is, there is some resistance among working class white people to voting for a black person, and Clinton knows it as well as anyone, and she didn’t have to say it directly for it to be obvious.

I know people who did not vote for Obama in the primaries because they thought America was just too racist to elect a black man, and they want Democrats to win this year. They may be right, and we’re foolish to think that it’s not going to be an uphill battle getting Obama elected. It’s everyone’s right as voters to consider electability, including electability arguments based on race and gender, when casting their own vote in the voting booth. But for the superdelegates to buy into that argument now and overturn the pledged delegates because they are afraid people are not ready to vote for a black man for president would essentially mean that they were denying Obama the nomination when he has earned it because he’s black. Even if America is not ready to elect a black man, we’ve come too far to turn back now. The voters have spoken and barring some last minute scandal that derails Obama’s campaign, there is no justification left for denying him the nomination.

I want to win this election as badly as anyone, but not to the point where I could accept a nomination process in which black voters were considered less important than white voters and the first African American with a chance to become president was denied the nomination despite having more votes and more delegates simply because of the color of his skin. I have faith in the American people to look beyond skin color and realize that Obama offers a better vision and better solutions for this country than John McCain. But even if I end up being wrong, I would rather see my party do what’s right and take the chance than abandon its commitment to civil rights and diversity and equal opportunity for all, which is essentially what the superdelegates would be doing if they took the nomination away from Obama at this point.

They sent me to Narberth, which is in Montgomery County, less than 10 minutes from Philly. As I said in my previous post, I went to high school right around there, so I know the area pretty well. Most of the people I talked to today were white, upper-middle class, ages 30-55.

I wasn’t quite sure what to expect, especially after getting not such great vibes at the ACME in Narberth 2 weeks ago when I was there doing voter registration. But I am pleased to report that of the people I talked to today, I identified 8 Obama supporters, 3 undecided, and only 1 Clinton supporter. Unlike 2 weeks ago, I didn’t meet anyone who said they were a lifelong Dem who would vote for McCain if Obama was the nominee (though I met one woman who said a few of her friends might, because they did not trust Obama on Israel).

A few of the people I met were already volunteering, mostly through the Center City office in Philadelphia. One man who works in Center City said that he had several coworkers on the fence, and many of them had decided to vote for Obama after hearing his speech on race relations.

I met one woman who was undecided and said that she really wished she could vote for both of them. She said that the fact that she was even undecided now was a tribute to Obama, because she had initially been firmly in Hillary’s camp.

The campaign office said they had already identified 63% of the supporters they needed to identify in Lower and Upper Merion, and that they had gotten more volunteers today than they had expected, so they anticipated getting further ahead of the goal after today’s results were tallied.

I’m trying not to get my hopes up by even entertaining the notion that Obama could win Pennsylvania, but let’s just say today’s results are encouraging. It definitely feels like something has shifted over the past two weeks.

I had volunteered for Dean for almost a year, getting involved in March of 2003, before most people had even heard of him. I spent that summer working to build name recognition in New Jersey and Pennsylvania, and I spent winter break my freshman year of college interning in freezing cold New Hampshire for his campaign. I put my heart and soul into the Dean campaign, but I never got to vote for him. And I don’t remember the Clintons or any other big name Democrats speaking up for my right to vote in a competitive primary.

I’m not calling for Clinton to drop out. I never have, and I have called out other Obama supporters who have done so. But if she was really so committed to letting everyone vote before a nominee was decided, why did she not speak up in 2004 when the media basically anointed Kerry as the nominee after Iowa? Why did she not speak up for my right as a late state voter (New Jersey was not until June back then) to vote for the candidate I believed in and have my vote matter?

I don’t dispute Clinton’s right to stay in this, and I think those who call for her to drop out are counterproductive. But is there anyone who has any doubt that if the tables were turned, Clinton would not be calling for Obama to drop out or treating him as completely insignificant? Is there any doubt that if the tables were turned, Obama would be a joke by now for staying in? Would Clinton really be championing the cause of letting everyone vote if the tables were turned?

In addition to the online surge following March 4, it’s likely that a lot of big donors who had been holding back to see if she was still viable donated to Clinton. And she had the Elton John concert the other night that probably brought in a lot of money.

Obama probably raised some money after March 4 as well, as it’s likely that some of his donors were holding back to see if the primary race would continue before donating. But given that his campaign did not put out their own number when Clinton’s team announced how much she had raised, it’s unlikely that he raised as much.

Those who know political fundraising know that it is event-driven, so let’s go through the rest of the month and evaluate how events may have impacted each campaign’s fundraising:

1. Samantha Powers calling Hillary a monster.The Clinton campaign used this in a fundraising appeal, and probably raised some money from it.
2. Wyoming and Mississippi. Obama won big in both, but since his victories were expected and the media treated them as no surprise, he probably did not get a huge boost in fundraising from them.
3. The Geraldine Ferraro controversy. Clinton took a bit of a hit in the polls during this time, and some indignant Obama supporters may have been prompted to give. But it also might have inspired donations from some Clinton supporters who thought Ferraro was being treated unfairly or that Clinton was being unfairly blamed for it. All in all probably not a big net gain for either candidate.
4. The Wright controversy. This probably gave Obama a boost from supporters who thought he was unfairly under attack, but it may have also inspired Clinton donors who became more optimistic that she might still have a path to the nomination. It’s also possible that Obama’s fundraising slowed during this time as people started to have second thoughts.
5. Obama’s speech on race. No doubt in my mind that a lot of people gave after seeing the speech. I know I did!
6. Snipergate. Like the Ferraro thing, could have gone either way. Obama bouncing back in the polls is always a good thing, but once again, Clinton supporters might have rallied to her by donating.
7. Leahy’s call for Clinton to drop out. The Clinton campaign smartly used this in a fundraising e-mail, and I have no doubt that the call for her to drop out caused some of her supporters to donate to help keep her alive.
8. Reports about Clinton’s campaign being broke (based on February reports) and not paying vendors. Again, this may have underscored the importance of donating for Clinton’s supporters in order to keep her alive.
9. The contest to win dinner with Barack. This probably got a lot of donations (my grandparents donated for the first time hoping for a chance to win), but since many of the donations were from people who don’t usually donate or people who had already donated but wanted to give a little more in order to win dinner, it’s likely that most of these donations were fairly small.

Of course, there were other events that may have driven fundraising, like endorsements. But looking at the events of the month and the fact that Clinton raised so much money right after March 4, I think it’s not entirely impossible that she could end up outraising Obama this month.

If that were to happen, the media would consider it a big upset, and it might change the narrative of the race. It might also have the effect of slowing superdelegate endorsements for Obama, as it would be another sign that they should not count Clinton out just yet.

If you are an Obama supporter who does not want to see that happen, I strongly suggest that you try to give today if you have not already given this month (or even if you have). Feel free to use my donation page, or if you have not yet entered the contest to win dinner, do so here.

One theme throughout this primary season has been that Clinton seems to do best when her back is up against the wall. When everyone predicted her downfall in the run-up to New Hampshire, she pulled off a surprise win. When her back was up against the wall in Ohio and Texas, she managed to survive.

This has not been true for other candidates this year or in the past, when losing tends to lead to more losing because of the media casting them as losers. Witness Dean in 2004 and Guiliani this year.

So why does Clinton tend to do best when her campaign is on the ropes? Some people have speculated that there is a gender factor, and I think that’s dead on. I am a passionate Obama supporter, but as a woman, I feel twinges of guilt at times about the fact that I am not supporting the first woman with a real shot at the presidency. As crazy as this probably sounds, if Clinton does eventually drop out I have a feeling I will be sad.

If even I, as a hardcore Obama supporter, feel that way, then I would be that some women who maybe leaned toward Obama or were on the fence might have ended up voting for Clinton when it looked like losing would end her campaign. This might help to explain her stronger than expected showing in New Hampshire and in Ohio, two times when it looked like a loss might mean the end for her. If I had voted in one of those states, I probably would have still voted for Obama, but I might have paused for a moment and felt a little guilty about it.

If Obama starts closing the gap in Pennsylvania in the polls, we might see a similar effect, where women who had been on the fence or leaned toward Obama end up breaking for Hillary, and Leahy’s comment could only make it worse. The Clintons are smart to use Leahy’s comment to their advantage on the campaign trail, and Obama was right to distance himself from it and say that Clinton should stay in as long as she wants. Still, I am afraid the damage may have been done.

So I said okay and dropped it, but then she said “the last thing we need is Arabs infiltrating our government.” I said that Obama is not Arab and she just scoffed and said huffily “I’m not getting into this with you.”

What’s really disturbing about this is that my roommate’s parents are not uneducated people. They are upper-middle class Jews from Cleveland with college degrees. I would guess that they have been recipients of a smear e-mail similar to one that my cousin’s girlfriend’s mother (who also lives in Cleveland) received, but it’s disturbing that educated people believe this crap.

I had heard about smear e-mails that had been sent to Jewish voters claiming Obama is a Muslim before, and now I wonder if that is why I got so many dirty looks from Jews in Montgomery County, PA last weekend. We really need to do something to combat this, though I am not sure what.

I’m really shaken up right now…I feel uncomfortable in my own apartment. I went back out to the living room a little later to get some water and her mother was pleasant, but I don’t want to make small talk with someone who is so bigoted towards Arabs and so ignorant and judgmental. Maybe I’ll drive up to Philly and stay at my parents’ empty house tomorrow night and do some canvassing…I have a friend’s birthday tomorrow night but maybe she’ll understand.

I grew up in the Philadelphia area and went to high school in Montgomery County, right outside the city. So I came up for the weekend to help the Obama campaign register new voters and help people who wanted to switch their registration to Democrat to vote in the primary.

Some background on the area: Montgomery County is an upper-income area with a large Jewish population, particularly in the part closest to Philadelphia. It used to be a Republican stronghold, and registered Republicans still outnumber registered Democrats, in part because most of the local government is still Republican. But Kerry carried the county by 12 points in 2004, and there are a lot of people who have voted Democrat for at least the last 2 presidential elections and voted for Rendell for governor both times but never changed their registration. So in addition to signing up new voters (most people in areas like this are already registered), one of the main objectives was to get these people to register as Democrats so they could vote for Obama in the primary.

Bottom line impression: the Wright “scandal” (I prefer to call it a character assassination) has definitely hurt Obama, but it hasn’t killed him. He still has plenty of support, but it didn’t feel like as much of an Obama stronghold as I thought it would be.

They sent me to a supermarket in Narberth, PA to do registration. This is a heavily Jewish area, and they picked that location for me because it has a large kosher section and I told them that I had gone to a Jewish high school and knew how to talk to people who were worried about whether Obama would be pro-Israel enough as president.

At first it was pretty discouraging. Several people gave me dirty looks and said things like “don’t even talk to me.” One man essentially called me a traitor to my religion and said that Obama was “no friend to us”, and one woman said that she was a Democrat but might vote for McCain if Obama was the nominee, because she was disturbed about the Wright sermons and what Michelle Obama had said about being proud of her country.

Several people expressed doubts about Obama that I could kind of tell were related to Israel, even if they did not say it until I asked. I gave out sheets the Obama campaign had prepared detailing his positions on Israel, and told them that I was Jewish myself and would never support someone I did not trust to be supportive of Israel, but I trust Barack Obama. Hopefully that, plus the information I gave out will help to reassure people. I should have also pointed out that Jewish leaders in Chicago are very comfortable with Obama, and he had a lot of Jewish support when he ran for the Senate four years ago.

At first, the only people who seemed to be for Obama were the people who worked in the store, most of whom were African American. I got a few of them registered for the first time, so that felt good. But just about every white person I met at first seemed to have a negative impression of him, and I was pretty demoralized.

I went back to the headquarters after I ran out of registration forms. I called my mom and said “I think it’s over. His support among rich white liberals seems to have collapsed, and they’re one of his core constituencies. If he can’t win white voters here he can’t win them anywhere in the state.” But she yelled at me for being defeatist, and I forced myself to go back out there and do some more registration. Somehow, the second round was a lot more encouraging. I met a lot more people (mostly white) who supported Obama or were leaning that way.

This is a highly educated, upper-income area, so most people were already registered, but several people asked to take forms home for their kids who had recently turned 18 or were in college and on spring break. I also got a lot of people who wanted to change their registration from Republican or independent to Democrat. I am not sure if they were all planning to vote for Obama, but I was decked out in Obama gear, so I would think most people who agreed to fill out forms for me were Obama supporters if they trusted me to handle their registration form (except for one woman who admitted she planned to vote for Clinton).

I met several enthusiastic supporters, including a couple who were already volunteering and a couple more who were willing to. Several people asked for yard signs or bumper stickers, which I asked them to sign up for, though I found out later the campaign did not have any. It seemed like many of the people who were liberal Democrats supported Obama, while more of the Clinton supporters were the type who called themselves Democrats but would consider voting for McCain if Obama were not the nominee.

A lot of people who were already registered thanked me for what I was doing and said it was a good public service. I don’t know if all of them were for Obama, but I would imagine some of them were.

Among the more interesting encounters I had were:

• A mother who was there with her college-age son, who I think was on spring break from Temple. He said that he had seen people on campus from the Obama campaign doing voter registration. I asked if he was going to vote for Obama, and he said he wasn’t sure, but his mother said sharply “no, you’re not!” Hopefully he’ll make up his own mind. Later on I wished I had said “hey, don’t tell your Mama you’re for Obama.”
• The Joe-six-pack type who had been for Richardson then Edwards, but is now voting for Obama, mainly because he dislikes Hillary. He was very pleased about the Richardson endorsement.
• A woman who did not want to change her registration because it meant having to choose between Clinton and Obama, when she really liked them both. I told her I like Hillary but I work in politics and I know enough about politicians behind the scenes to know that Obama is really something special. I encouraged her to take a form, and pointed out that if she registered as a Democrat, she’d have 30 days to make up her mind, and if she still could not decide she did not have to vote in the primary, but that way she’d have the option. She took a form and hopefully she will fill it out and send it.
• The woman who has been a staunch Republican all her life and hates Hillary, though she would like to see a woman president. She said she would have more respect for Hillary if she had left Bill after he cheated on her. She won’t vote for Obama but she really likes him. She told me a story about a time when she got to go to the governor’s mansion in Arkansas when Bill was governor. (she had been involved with this group for women in construction and got to go to some political events as a result). She said that when she was there, they overheard Hillary screaming at Bill with all kinds of expletives, complaining that he had been away for three days and accusing him of screwing around. She could have been making this up, but it did not sound terribly implausible.

All in all, I would say Obama definitely had a substantial and diverse base of support in the area, but perhaps not as high as it should be in an upper-income suburb. Although when I thought about the fact that not everyone there was a Democrat to begin with (45% of the county voted for Bush, though I would guess that number was lower in the particular area I was in), it did not seem so bad.

At the end of the day, I was moderately encouraged. Obama has definitely lost some support in the last week, but his support among white voters has not collapsed as I had initially feared.

Here are a few other accounts from volunteers in Pennsylvania:
Young Philly Politics
Green Mountain Daily’s account of how things look in Scranton
Pennsylvanians for Change reports seeing lots of signs in Berks County