Below is a list of states that have not been prioritized by Democrats in the last two elections that I believe may be worth trying for this time around. These are not the traditional “purple states” like Ohio and Florida that we know are going to be targeted by both parties. These are states that lean Republican and have not been among Democrats’ top targets in the last two presidential elections. But they are states that I think Democrats can at least make competitive in 2008, building on the gains we made in 2006 and taking advantage of the more even playing field than the one we faced in 2004. The states I have picked may be long shots, but even if we don’t win them, if we can make the polls close enough, we can put Republicans on the defensive and force them to spend money in places they thought were safe.

So here’s my first set of picks for new red-to-blue targets:

Montana

Bush may have won here handily in the past two elections, but this state is not nearly as red as some people think it is. Both of the state’s US senators are now Democrats, the governor is a Democrat, and Democrats control the state senate and are down only one vote in the state house. This state has a definite independent streak!

As a state that is used to being ignored by presidential candidates, a Democrat who takes the time to campaign there could earn points for showing up even if Montanans don’t agree with his or her views. Let’s not forget that Clinton campaigned in Montana in 1992 and he won there. Granted, this was made possible in large part by Perot, who got 26% of the vote. But even without Perot, I believe that if the Democratic presidential candidate campaigns there he/she can at least make it competitive. Granted, Montana is only worth 3 electoral votes, so depending on the political climate in the fall of 2008 it may not be worth it. But don’t discount the small states…if Gore had won Montana in 2000 he’d have become president without Florida.

Indiana

I’m not going to lie: this is an uphill battle. The last Democratic presidential candidate to carry Indiana was Lyndon Johnson in 1964. But like neighboring Ohio, Indiana has been hit hard by the loss of industrial jobs, which many people attribute in part to the economic policies of Reagan and the Bushes. The unions are pretty strong in Indiana, and can mount a massive get-out-the-vote campaign if the polls are close enough to make the effort seem worth it. Indianans are culturally conservative, but 2006 showed “Reagan Democrats” in places like Indiana and Ohio beginning to wake up and realize that their jobs and economic prosperity are more important than whether same-sex couples are allowed to get married, enabling Democrats to knock off three Republican incumbents. If John Edwards is the nominee, his populist message just might resonate in Indiana, and if he or whoever the nominee ends up being puts Bayh on the ticket, we might actually have a shot.

Virginia

This post wouldn’t be complete without mentioning my new home state, the state that inspired the name of this blog. Virginia is changing, and it’s becoming less red and more purple as the DC suburbs expand beyond Arlington and Alexandria to areas as far as 50 miles away. These areas start out Republican, but become more Democratic as they become more populous. I was pretty surprised that Webb won Loudon County in 2006, but his victory there affirms Ruy Teixeira’s theory that as exurbs become more populous and begin to transition into emerging suburbs, they become more diverse and more Democratic. As the DC suburbs expand, Virginia is becoming less of a southern state and more of a mid-Atlantic state.

Interestingly, while Virginia has gone Republican in every presidential election beginning in 1968, it was only in the last 15 years that they made headway in state politics. 1999 was the first time since the Republican Party came into existence that it controlled both houses of the Virginia legislature. Virginia evolved toward the Republicans the same way other southern states did, and I don’t have a lot of hope that we will win back the type of voters who abandoned the party in the 1980’s. As the maps below clearly demonstrate, a Democratic victory in Virginia today does not look the same geographically as it did in 1964 when Lyndon Johnson won it.

Presidential Results 1964

Senate Results 2006

But Mark Warner demonstrated in 2001 that campaigning in rural areas that were not hit by the wave of growth in the 1990’s can pay off, and Webb showed that Virginia can be winnable for Democrats when the DC suburbs turn out in high enough force.

Note: Maps courtesy of Dave Liep’s US Presidential Election Atlas. I edited his maps to make the Democratic counties blue and the Republican counties red (he has it the other way around, which I find confusing).  Some of the information about state demographics and voting patterns courtesy of National Journal.