Latest NBC Poll: Obama is in Surprisingly Good Shape
The biggest surprise in the new poll released by NBC tonight is the drop in Clinton’s favorability ratings, while Obama’s numbers have remained surprisingly steady despite the “controversy” over his pastor’s remarks. But a closer look at the numbers shows a few other encouraging signs:
While his support among white voters has slipped a few points since the last poll, he actually does better among whites against McCain than Clinton, losing the white vote 49-38, as opposed to 53-38 for Clinton. The 11-point deficit among whites might look discouraging, but it’s important to keep in mind that Kerry lost the white vote by 17 points in 2004. Obama is only 3 points below Kerry’s percentage of the white vote (41%), while McCain is 9 points behind Bush’s 58% (the rest are undecided).
Most analysts expect Obama to get a smaller share of the white vote than previous Democratic nominees, but predict that he can offset it with higher turnout among African Americans. But according to this poll, if the undecided white voters break evenly for Obama and McCain, Obama will actually get a greater share of the white vote than Kerry got, which would pretty much guarantee him a win, barring a huge defection among Latinos. Kerry only won the Latino vote by 9 points in 2004, and state polls so far have shown Obama doing better than that, though Clinton does do better against McCain among Latinos than Obama does.
Of course, this is only one poll, and the election is still 7 months away. A lot could change between now and November, and we should be cautious about reading too much into this one poll.
[…] Andrew Daniller wrote an interesting post today onHere’s a quick excerpt The biggest surprise in the new poll released by NBC tonight is the drop in Clinton’s favorability ratings, while Obama’s numbers have remained surprisingly steady despite the “controversy†over his pastor’s remarks. But a closer look at the numbers shows a few other encouraging signs: While his support among white voters has slipped a few points since the last poll, he actually does better among whites against McCain than Clinton, losing the white vote 49-38, as opposed to 53-38 for Clinton. […]
Thank you for blog rolling notes, purplestatepundit. Indeed i have a dream myself. And yes its one worth fighting for. If you and your readers enjoy news , and international events as well as in depth well researced posts on politics see bluebloggin.com. Its truly a good to source of some great info. Fromtheleft.wordpress.com is also about as Pro Obama with a passion as a blog can be. Thanks for stopping by Notes..drop in any old time.
I am still reeling over finding out the Delai Lama was on the CIA payroll at one time. ….(head explodes) all politics even for us junkies , needs to be taken in measured doses..for me lately
fondly - PP
Nice blog! I’ve added yours to my blog roll and to my google reader! Peace!
Go Obama!
Thanks for adding us to your “Obama” blogs. I’ve included a link to this blog also. You have a nice thing going here.
Hi Purple State Pundit
thanks for stopping by yesterday.
Yes, I am an Obama Supporter. I’d be happy to be added to your blogroll. I will add you to mine this weekend or today if I get around to it.
Thanks again.
http://pissedonpolitics.com/
Please do add my blog to your list of blogs supporting Barack Obama.
I hope all of your readers will sign the petition urging Hillary Clinton to “Concede Now, Hillary!”
Please consider getting a “Concede Now Hillary!” Widget that takes readers to the petition!