Turning Virginia Blue
Sorry for the lack of updates…between work and volunteering for the campaign I have been pretty busy.
This past weekend I went out canvassing for Obama, Mark Warner, and Jim Moran in Arlington through the Arlington Democrats’ coordinated campaign. It was the first time I had gone canvassing in Arlington, though I did a lot of canvassing in Fairfax in 2007 for state house candidates. I partnered with a guy who is interning in DC for the summer, who had never gone canvassing before, so that felt pretty good.
The neighborhood I canvassed was near the Arlington-Fairfax border, and it looked fairly working class, although real estate is so expensive in Arlington that I would guess these people had higher incomes than you would find in a similar neighborhood elsewhere. The people I talked to were mostly white, mostly under 60.
It was definitely the most pro-Obama white neighborhood I have ever been in, although since it was my first time canvassing for the general election it’s hard to compare. Kerry won Arlington County 2-1 in 2004, and from my completely unscientific sample Saturday, it seems like Obama is on track to replicate that. The key will be improving on Kerry’s performance in the further-out DC suburbs (Fairfax, Loudon, Prince William) and driving up turnout in Arlington and Alexandria. The good news is, given the proximity to DC, there are tons of politically active volunteers from Northern Virginia and DC to help with voter registration and GOTV.
I think my perception of the Virginia political landscape is slightly skewed because I live in Arlington, but Obama’s chances certainly look pretty good. I went back over the exit polls from the primary, and I still can’t figure out how Obama did so well among pretty much all demographic groups, given the demographic trends in primaries before and after. I think the strong volunteer organization played a big part in that, as well as Governor Kaine. Winning Virginia in November is still going to be tough, but I definitely think it’s doable.
